December 30, 2021
Key Research on Violent Radicalization leading to Terrorism Published
Novel Hypothesis of Terror Contagion Demonstrated through DIME-PMESII Simulation
Carson City, Nevada: Dialectic today announced that its President & Founder along with three co-authors published a peer-reviewed article relating to the violent radicalization of individuals that leads to terrorism. Joined by Professors Khalid Saeed, Oleg Pavlov, and B.A. Addison the work was published in the Journal Systems. This milestone is a major move for Dialectic on its mission to increase the use of simulation science and systems thinking in defense, government, and business.
“Our earlier work focused on organized large non-state actors, like ISIS or the Taliban operating in an insurgent environment. But we also wanted to investigate the beginning of that lifecycle. Why do some people become radicalized within a violent ideology?” said Mr. Clancy, Founder & President of Dialectic Simulations and a research scientist in violence and instability. “This publication is the first of a stream of research investigating these questions from a perspective of systems science using both system dynamics and systems thinking.”
The research mirrors initiatives and accomplishments of the company, including:
- Convergent Thinking & Decision Making – the swarm vs. fishermen debate on root causes of radicalization has dominated combating terrorism research for years. But systems science demonstrated that these two “opposing” views are actually subsumed in a larger system wherein both can manifest.
- Making Sense of Data – the simulation used to aid this research leveraged parameter values derived from a study of over 4,600 terror incidents. And the contingency analysis used in experiments consisted of millions of calculations.
- Strategy Development – understanding the system level root causes of violent radicalization is the first step to developing effective counter radicalization and combating terrorism policies.
To learn more about this research click below for the article published in Systems:
Contingencies of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Simulation
To review working draft copies of additional research by Mr. Clancy and his co-authors in this effort click on any of the links below:
Profiles of Violent Radicalization: Analysis on key criteria of over 4,600 terror incidents in Western Europe and the United States from 1995-2018
Root Causes of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Hypothesis
Countering Violent Radicalization: Comparing antiterrorism, counterterrorism and counter radicalization strategies
About Dialectic Simulations Consulting, LLC: Dialectic is a provider of consulting services specializing in systems thinking, system dynamics simulations, and performance improvement methods, including Lean Six Sigma and Agile. Its founder, Timothy Clancy, is the former Chief Methodologist of Lean Six Sigma and Agile for IBM and an industry-recognized expert in performance improvement methods for large complex organizations. He is also a published system scientist focusing on the use of simulations to understand the violence and instability of non-state actors.
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