May 16, 2023
Dialectic Completes Marine Corps Research Project on Advanced Computer Simulation
The competitive effort included modeling civilian daily patterns of life and atmospherics in Russian-Ukrainian, Myanmar, and ISIS conflicts.
Atlanta, GA: Dialectic Simulations Consulting, LLC today announced successful completion of Phase I of a multi-phase research project to model civilian-military operations, through the Marine Corps Warfare and Analysis Center (MCWAC). This milestone marks Dialectic’s first completed Federal contract as a prime contractor and delivers on its mission of providing advanced system dynamics simulations and systems thinking to government and businesses seeking to help them solve complex problems.
MCWAC initiated the three-way competition between Dialectic, Energy Security Group, and Charles River Analytics through a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Grant. MCWAC required simulation models representing complex civilian daily patterns of life and atmospherics to support wargaming, futures forecasting, and policy analysis. Civilian daily patterns of life include tangible and intangible factors of demographics, age, gender, social role and how those populations interact, consume and travel between civil infrastructure, facilities and civil services. Civilian atmospherics represent intangible factors of how civilians form sentiments and affiliations to other civilian populations including voluntary organizations as well as state and non-state actor groups.
This news comes after Dialectic completed several recent subcontracting engagements both with the Marine Corps and other Department of Defense functions::
- 2018-2022 Improving Quality & Lean Six Sigma Efforts at the Marine Corps Logistics Command (MARCORLOGCOM)
- 2017-2018 Supporting the Combatting Terrorism Technical Support Office (CTTSO) Project MEADE within the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Low Intensity Conflict & Special Operations (ASD(LIC/SO))
Dialectic’s efforts with MCWAC built upon prior development of an advanced computer simulation known as the Emerging-State Actor Model (E-SAM), originally built through Dr. Clancy’s Ph.D. research and further developed through Project MEADE at CTTSO, to model counter-ISIS policies in Syria and Iraq. E-SAM is a four-sided wargame representing how local state and non-state actors and foreign support to either side compete across a range of operations in a complex landscape of civilian populations. Analysis options allowed testing of policies and strategy in isolation, combination, different timing windows, and by employing counterfactuals and falsification efforts. In January of 2022, E-SAM was positively reviewed by an independent research team, who selected it as one of eleven models to profile as promising depictions of insurgency out of an initial set of over 900 simulations. In the MCWAC SBIR effort, the Dialectic team added more detail in representing civilian daily pattern of life and atmospherics, while also incorporating public data sources to quickly create simulations of any country or conflict in the world. To demonstrate proof of concept in Phase I Dialectic revisited it’s earlier ISIS analysis as well as simulating a post-conflict stabilization campaign after a hypothetical cease-fire in the Russian-Ukrainian War and a futures humanitarian aid mission in 2029 across various forecasted scenarios of the ongoing Myanmar Civil War.
To achieve this Dialectic integrated technical skillsets from its partner System of Systems Analytics (SoSA) and a diverse range of experts including system scientists, sociologists, experts in civilian refugee programs, and retired Marine Officers.
The Marine Corps ultimately selected the Energy Security Group and their partner Sandia National Labs to continue to Phase II. “Despite not being selected for Phase II we’re still immensely proud of our work,” said Dr. Timothy Clancy, the Principal Investigator on the project and President of Dialectic. “To be able to even compete alongside firms like this with our first outing as a federal prime contractor means we’re right where we want to be.”
To learn more about the requirements of the Phase I competition for the Marine Corps click here.
About Dialectic: Dialecictic Simulations Consulting, LLC specializes in solving hard problems. First, through workforce development with systems thinking to help professionals navigate day-to-day challenges of complex systems. Second by developing sophisticated computer simulation models that can recreate historical behavior, forecast future scenarios, identify unanticipated outcomes, and help select the best portfolio of policy options. Dialectic provides these capabilities to business, non-profit, and governmental efforts across both civilian and military focuses.